Lay Theism

The Dunning-Kruger effect…

The dumb get confident, while the intelligent get doubtful. That’s the conclusion that David Dunning and Justin Kruger came to when studying people’s perceptions of their own talents. What has now become known as the Dunning-Kruger effect…

Full discussion on The Science Show.  Abbreviated version posted by Boing Boing.

Incidentally, this was observed centuries before the release of the research paper:

Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.
– Confucius

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.
– Charles Darwin

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the
intelligent are full of doubt.
– Bertrand Russell

Related argument by Brian Dunning on Skeptoid (no relation to David Dunning) saying that people are not dumb or “stupid”, just misinformed:

The same goes for Sarah Palin, Ben Stein, Ken Ham, Bill Maher, Jenny McCarthy and Jim Carrey, and Prince Charles, all people who actively promote bad science or misinformation, and who believe they’re doing the right thing.

I like his list of misinformed personalities.  Check out the full piece on Skeptoid.

Politics, Polling, Science belief, doubt, education, knowledge, quotes, truth

No matter where you land politically, having Hillary Clinton as the Commander in Chief of the United States has got to cause you to think about the ramifications of such a possibility. 

A few days ago, Peggy Noonan summed up why she thought Hillary has been able to muster a comeback of sorts, but also paints a vivid picture of what it would mean for her to succeed: 

She kept her own spirits up to the point of denial and worked it, hard, every day. She is hardy, resilient, tough. She is a train on a track, an Iron Horse. But we must not become carried away with generosity. The very qualities that impress us are the qualities that will make her a painful president. She does not care what you think, she will have what she wants, she will not do the feints, pivots and backoffs that presidents must. She is neither nimble nor agile, and she knows best. She will wear a great nation down.

Very well said, Peggy.

Politics bitch, crazy, election, insanity, liberty, quotes, sad, scary

Wouldn’t you know it, a few days after I ponder my Beliefometer, the Wall Street Journal publishes a commentary by Arthur C. Brooks that points out a common polling instrument called a Feeling Thermometer.

As we are dragged through another election season, it is worth critically reviewing these stereotypes. Do the data support the claim that conservatives are haters, while liberals are tolerant of others? A handy way to answer this question is with what political analysts call “feeling thermometers,” in which people are asked on a survey to rate others on a scale of 0-100. A zero is complete hatred, while 100 means adoration. In general, when presented with people or groups about which they have neutral feelings, respondents give temperatures of about 70. Forty is a cold temperature, and 20 is absolutely freezing.

Pretty interesting, but I’m not sure that’s entirely true. If the mean response for neutral feelings is 70, what does that mean for these public figures?

Giuliani is Highest Ranked U.S. Politician

I know it’s not quite the same thing, but the way they totally ripped off my scaling is uncanny. Furthermore, what if I am neither liberal nor conservative… what then polling people?

Polling, Statistics conservative, data, liberal, poll, quotes, wsj